Our college football betting writer offers his best betting picks and predictions for the Big 12 conference title game matchup between No. 3 TCU and No. 10 Kansas State scheduled for Saturday at Arlington, Texas., at noon ET on ABC.
TCU can clinch a College Football Playoff spot with a win but will face an anxiety racked Saturday night with a setback. Kansas State could land an upper-tier bowl spot with a big upset.
TCU vs. Kansas State picks
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TCU vs. Kansas State predictions and analysis
The Wildcats can look back on that 18-point, second-quarter lead they held on TCU on Oct. 22 in Fort Worth and know they can go toe-to-tie with the Horned Frogs on the neutral field. TCU scored the final 28 points of the first meeting to pull out a 38-28 victory.
TCU -2.5
TCU is just 12-0 for the third time in program history but the whole season will feel lost if the Horned Frogs don’t take care of business on Saturday. All the pressure is on TCU while Kansas State can play free and relaxed.
Quarterback Max Duggan — who won the Johnny Unitas Award on Wednesday — has seemed immune to pressure while enjoying a fabulous season. The possible Heisman Trophy finalist has passed for 3,070 yards and 29 touchdowns against just three interceptions.
The running game will have to click for TCU to control this contest. Keandre Miller has come through all season and has rushed for 1,260 yards and 16 touchdowns.
The Horned Frogs were picked to finish seventh in the preseason Big 12 poll — repeat, SEVENTH — but finished the regular season in style with a 62-14 steamrolling of Iowa State. The Wildcats figure to put up a strong fight but we expect the Horned Frogs to post that magical 13th win.
TCU vs. Kansas State pick: TCU to cover -2.5 @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook
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Under 62 total points
Kansas State leads the Big 12 in scoring defense (19.4 points per game) and held six opponents to 17 or fewer points. The Wildcats also are one of four FBS teams to post two shutouts, the others being Georgia, Alabama and Minnesota.
The defense led by end Felix Anudike-Uzomah (7.5 sacks) isn’t the only good unit as the offense has been scintillating down the stretch. Kansas State has averaged 40.2 points over its last five games, scoring 47 or more in three of the contests.
Quarterback Will Howard will again start in place of Adrian Martinez (leg) and has thrown 13 touchdown passes against two interceptions in five appearances this season. Plus, dynamic runner Duece Vaughn (1,295 this season) ranks second in school history with 3,341 career rushing yards, trailing only College Hall of Famer Darren Sproles (4,979) in K-State annals.
The Wildcats would prefer fewer points are scored in this game while TCU thrives in high-scoring shootouts. We see Kansas State’s sturdy defense doing enough to make the total go under.
TCU vs. Kansas State pick: Under 62 total points @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook
Max Duggan over 1.5 touchdown passes
Duggan entered the season with 41 career touchdown passes in three seasons and nobody was predicting that he might be invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony. But he should be on his way to New York for the big shindig due to a downright magical campaign.
Nobody also was expecting new coach Sonny Dykes to turn Duggan into a touchdown-throwing machine. But Duggan has a chance to set the TCU single-season record with only Trevone Boykin (33 in 2014, 31 in 2015) having thrown more touchdowns in Horned Frogs’ history.
Duggan throws touchdowns in bunches — seven games of three or more TD passes, including one of five. Seeing he threw three scoring passes in the first matchup against Kansas State, this one feels like a safe play.
TCU vs. Kansas State pick: Max Duggan over 1.5 touchdown passes @ -160 via Caesars Sportsbook
TCU vs. Kansas State odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
| Total Points 62 | Team | Spread | Moneyline |
| Over -117 | Kansas State | (+2.5) -117 | +108 |
| Under -117 | TCU | (-2.5) -117 | -148 |
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